Tensions between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the Biden administration are escalating, raising the specter of impeachment. This begs the question: will McCarthy follow the cautious path of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, or will he succumb to pressure from the right? Pelosi famously resisted calls to impeach President George W. Bush over the Iraq War, opting instead to use the power of the purse to gradually reduce war funding. She also initially resisted impeaching President Trump, despite pressure from her caucus. It was only after the emergence of the Ukraine phone call transcript, and after a group of moderate Democrats with national security backgrounds publicly signaled their support, that Pelosi finally initiated impeachment proceedings.

This careful approach stands in contrast to the current push by some House Republicans to impeach President Biden. Rep. Lauren Boebert's recent attempt to force an immediate impeachment vote was thwarted by McCarthy, who instead referred the resolution to the Judiciary and Homeland Security Committees. This move has bought McCarthy some time, but the underlying tension remains. The committees' investigations into Biden's handling of the border could lay the groundwork for a formal impeachment inquiry, but it remains uncertain whether McCarthy has the votes to succeed. Several scenarios are possible: the committees could escalate their investigations, leading to an eventual impeachment vote; they could do nothing, forcing Boebert to bring the issue back to the floor; or they could quietly shelve the effort, risking backlash from some Republicans.

Meanwhile, other potential impeachment targets are also being discussed, including Attorney General Merrick Garland, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has stated that McCarthy is not opposed to impeachment, but he wants to ensure he has the votes to succeed. This is a crucial difference from Pelosi's situation. With a slim four-seat majority, McCarthy faces a much more challenging political landscape. Whether he chooses to follow Pelosi's cautious approach or yield to pressure from the right will have significant consequences for his speakership and the future of the Republican Party.