Ecuador is headed for a presidential runoff election in April, with conservative incumbent Daniel Noboa facing off against leftist lawyer Luisa González. Neither candidate secured a majority in Sunday's initial election, but both emerged significantly ahead of the 14 other contenders.

Preliminary results show Noboa and González each capturing around 44% of the vote. The upcoming runoff, scheduled for April 13th, mirrors the October 2023 snap election that propelled Noboa to a 16-month presidency. This time, they are competing for a full four-year term.

A dominant issue for voters is the pervasive crime that has gripped the nation. The surge in violence is linked to the trafficking of cocaine originating from neighboring Colombia and Peru. Many Ecuadorians have been directly impacted by crime, influencing their choice of whether to give Noboa another term or opt for a new leader.

With approximately 92% of the ballots tallied, official figures from Ecuador's National Electoral Council indicate Noboa received 4.22 million votes (44.31%), while González garnered 4.17 million votes (43.83%). Voter turnout was strong, with over 83% of eligible voters participating, reflecting the mandatory voting laws in Ecuador.

Crime Remains a Central Concern

While the homicide rate has seen a decrease under Noboa's administration, from 46.18 per 100,000 in 2023 to 38.76 per 100,000 last year, it still significantly exceeds the 6.85 per 100,000 recorded in 2019. Other crimes, including kidnapping and extortion, have surged, creating an atmosphere of fear and insecurity.

Some voters express dissatisfaction with Noboa's performance on crime. One citizen, burdened by monthly extortion payments to local gangs, voiced skepticism about Noboa's ability to bring about meaningful change. Others, however, see Noboa as the only candidate effectively addressing organized crime.

Contrasting Backgrounds and Approaches

Noboa, a businessman with a background in his family's banana trade, entered politics in 2021. His tenure has been marked by controversial tactics in combating crime, including declaring a state of internal armed conflict and authorizing a police raid on the Mexican embassy. González, a protégée of former President Rafael Correa, gained prominence as Correa's party's candidate in the 2023 snap election.

Looking Ahead to the Runoff

Analysts suggest Noboa may face challenges in broadening his support base, while González's campaign has exceeded pre-election expectations. The runoff promises a close contest, with crime and security remaining central issues for voters.