The cost of eggs is soaring, and experts predict further increases. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs hit $4.15 in December, a significant jump from $2.51 in December 2023.

Two key factors are driving this price surge: the ongoing bird flu outbreak and state regulations mandating cage-free eggs. Supply chain expert Patrick Penfield from Syracuse University’s School of Management foresees a potential 20% price hike by year's end, pushing the average cost of a dozen eggs close to $5 – a potential record high.

This anticipated increase would surpass the previous record of $4.82 set in January 2023. While prices had fallen to $2.04 by August 2023, Penfield believes the record could be broken as early as February.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu, has decimated egg-laying hen populations, as reported by the USDA. Over 20 million hens perished in the final quarter of 2024, impacting all types of production systems, from conventional caged to cage-free and organic.

Farms detecting bird flu are forced to cull entire flocks, a process that severely disrupts the egg industry. Hens require approximately five months to mature and begin laying, with an output of roughly one egg per day. Currently, there are no vaccines or treatments for bird flu, leaving biosecurity measures as the only defense. These include protecting chickens from wild birds and humans, covering enclosures, and minimizing standing water.

While the hope is for chickens to develop natural immunity, Penfield cautions that this could take years and may not be effective against mutated strains of the virus.

Beyond bird flu, state laws requiring cage-free eggs further contribute to higher prices. Cage-free eggs generally cost more than conventional eggs, even without the impact of disease outbreaks. Although pasture-raised chickens produce premium eggs, they face a greater risk of contracting HPAI due to increased exposure to infected waterfowl, according to experts.

The University of Minnesota emphasizes the risk of HPAI transmission from infected poultry to other flocks through contact with birds, humans, manure, and equipment. The virus can persist in bird waste for extended periods, especially in damp, cold conditions.