Following the Wagner Group's aborted rebellion, significant shifts are occurring within the Russian military's top ranks. Two high-ranking commanders have vanished from the public eye, raising questions about their involvement and the aftermath of the mutiny, which posed the most substantial threat to President Putin's authority in decades.
Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, a key figure in Russia's Ukraine invasion and reportedly one of three commanders with access to Russia's nuclear launch codes, has not been seen publicly or mentioned in official communications since the mutiny. His absence is particularly noteworthy given that Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin specifically demanded his removal.
Adding to the intrigue, General Sergei Surovikin, known as "General Armageddon," has also disappeared. Rumors of his arrest, possibly linked to prior knowledge of Prigozhin's plans, are circulating, fueled by reports from military bloggers and discussions among U.S. intelligence officials.
While the Kremlin downplays the situation as mere speculation, an influential Telegram channel suggests a purge is underway within the armed forces, targeting those perceived as hesitant in suppressing the rebellion. This aligns with reports that Wagner forces encountered minimal resistance initially.
Gerasimov's absence during Putin's recent address thanking the army further fuels speculation about his standing. Notably, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, a frequent target of Prigozhin's criticism, was present. Surovikin's last appearance was in a video urging Prigozhin to halt the mutiny, where he appeared strained, possibly under duress.
Former U.S. defense intelligence officer Rebekah Koffler suggests that Putin is using the situation to consolidate power, portraying himself as the sole figure capable of maintaining stability. This, she argues, sets the stage for his 2024 re-election campaign and reinforces the message that any instability in nuclear-armed Russia poses a global threat.
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