Iran is grappling with a significant energy crisis, marked by widespread blackouts and gas shortages, which is putting immense pressure on the regime. This vulnerability, coupled with the anticipated return of Trump's maximum pressure campaign, could create an environment conducive to regime change, according to experts.

Lisa Daftari, editor-in-chief of The Foreign Desk, highlights the regime's declining influence in the region, citing setbacks for Hezbollah and Hamas in their conflicts with Israel, losses for the Houthis in Yemen, and the weakening of the Syrian regime. The plummeting value of the Iranian Rial and economic mismanagement further exacerbate the situation.

The energy crisis has sparked widespread concern among Iranian officials, who fear a resurgence of social and political unrest. Past protests, such as those in 2019 and 2022 triggered by fuel price hikes and the enforcement of hijab laws, respectively, demonstrated the population's willingness to challenge the regime. The head of Iran's judiciary has issued directives to prevent further unrest, highlighting the government's anxiety.

Despite possessing substantial oil and gas reserves, Iran's energy sector is struggling due to years of underinvestment, mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions. The regime's significant financial support for terrorist proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas has further drained resources. The Iranian Rial recently plummeted to a historic low following Trump's election victory, adding to the economic woes.

The confluence of the energy crisis, economic instability, and the potential for renewed pressure from the US under Trump creates a precarious situation for the Iranian regime, raising questions about its long-term stability.