Following the ousting of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah has publicly acknowledged the disruption of its crucial weapons supply line from Iran through Syria. This admission underscores the significant impact of the Syrian upheaval on the Iranian-backed group, which heavily relied on this route to bolster its forces, particularly during its conflict with Israel.

Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's leader, confirmed the loss while emphasizing the group's adaptability and resilience. He suggested that while the established supply route through Syria has been severed, alternative channels could be explored, and the flow of weapons might resume under a new Syrian regime.

The fall of Assad represents a major blow to Iran's influence in the region, particularly its close ties with Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group instrumental in Assad's overthrow, had previously criticized Syria's role as a staging ground for Iranian operations. Hezbollah, which had supported Assad against rebel forces, now faces new strategic challenges.

With Assad's demise, both Hezbollah and Iranian military forces have withdrawn from Syria. Qassem assumed leadership of Hezbollah after the death of Hassan Nasrallah in Israeli airstrikes south of Beirut in October. Despite their long-standing involvement in the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah and Iran, weakened by the conflict with Israel, did not intervene to defend Assad during the rapid takeover of Damascus.

Israel has capitalized on the ensuing instability to target Syrian military assets, including chemical weapons, through numerous airstrikes. Furthermore, Israeli forces have entered the Golan Heights buffer zone, a move not seen since 1973. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Israel's primary concern is border security and not interference in Syrian internal affairs. He affirmed Israel's commitment to preemptive strikes to prevent Hezbollah's resurgence.

While HTS, a former al Qaeda affiliate, has presented itself as a moderating influence, Israel remains wary of its long-term objectives. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz expressed concern about the potential threats emanating from Syria despite the seemingly moderate stance of the rebel leadership.

Hezbollah intensified its cross-border attacks against Israel following Hamas's actions in October 2023. Although a ceasefire has largely been maintained since late November, punctuated by occasional Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah operatives, Qassem defended the ceasefire's necessity to halt Israeli aggression in Lebanon, emphasizing that it does not signify an end to Hezbollah's resistance.