In a surprising turn of events, Brazil witnessed its lowest number of violent deaths in over ten years in 2022. The Brazilian Forum on Public Safety, an independent watchdog, reported approximately 47,500 homicides, a 2.4% decrease compared to 2021 and the lowest figure since 2011. This decline comes despite a significant rise in firearm ownership following loosened gun control regulations under former President Jair Bolsonaro. The number of registered firearms with the Federal Police surged by 47.5% between 2019 and 2022, reaching 1.5 million.

Several theories attempt to explain this unexpected trend. A key factor, according to Samira Bueno, executive director of the Brazilian Forum on Public Safety, is the relative peace maintained among rival gangs since 2018, following a peak in violence in 2017 attributed to a major gang war. Carolina Ricardo, director of the Instituto Sou da Paz, points to the implementation of comprehensive public security policies and social programs in various Brazilian states, alongside the country's aging demographic, as contributing factors. Younger individuals are statistically more likely to be involved in violent crime, both as perpetrators and victims.

Despite the overall decrease in homicides, the proportion of killings involving firearms remains alarmingly high at 77%, significantly exceeding the global average of approximately 44%. This raises concerns, even with the positive trend in overall violent deaths. Furthermore, while homicides decreased, other forms of violence, particularly against women, saw an increase. The report documented a record high number of rapes, primarily affecting children under 13, with almost 15,000 cases reported in 2022 – an 8.2% rise from the previous year. Feminicides also increased by 6%, with 1,437 recorded instances. It's important to note that Brazil's legal definition of rape is more encompassing than that of the U.S., not strictly requiring sexual penetration.